The Israel-Iran War: A Prelude to Something Bigger? 15.06.2025

"We want peace. Preferably the whole of it."
— (c) Leonid Brezhnev

On Friday the 13th (of all dates!), Israel launched a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities—along with an attempt to eliminate the country's entire military leadership. This move came as no surprise: not only were the targets predictable, but even classified documents detailing such a scenario had already leaked last year, allegedly by former CIA analyst Asif William Rahman.

Yet, despite the transparency, the first Israeli strike successfully disabled Iran’s air defense system—temporarily—and eliminated the following high-ranking figures:

  1. Mohammad Bagheri – Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Iran, the top military officer.

  2. Brigadier General Hossein Salami – Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

  3. Gholam Ali Rashid – Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters and deputy chief of staff.

  4. Ali Hajizadeh – Commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force.

  5. Ali Shamkhani – Admiral, former Defense Minister, and advisor to the Supreme Leader.

Several nuclear scientists were also killed:

  1. Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani – Former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, nuclear physicist.

  2. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi – Theoretical physicist and president of Islamic Azad University, expert in plasma-laser physics.

  3. Abdolhamid Minouchehr – Nuclear engineering expert, Dean of the Faculty of Nuclear Technology at Shahid Beheshti University.

  4. Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari – Nuclear engineering professor at the same university.

  5. Amir Hossein Faqhi – Expert in physics.

  6. Mansour Asgari – Physics specialist.

  7. Saeed Barji – Materials science expert.

Effectively, Iran lost the core of its military and IRGC leadership, along with several top nuclear scientists. Israel reportedly used drone-equipped vehicles stationed within Iranian territory—similar to the recent drone strikes on Russian strategic bombers—to disable Iran’s air defenses.

But the benefits for Israel seemingly end there.

Let’s now turn to Iran’s nuclear program—the ostensible target of Israel’s operation. This program is very much active. Key facilities potentially involved in nuclear weapons development include:

  1. Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant – Built over 90 meters underground, equipped with modern IR-6 centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

  2. Natanz 2 – According to Western intelligence and the IISS, buried 80–100 meters underground, designed to house advanced IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges.

How many of these were destroyed? None.
Only the older Natanz 1 facility, containing outdated IR-1 centrifuges (enriching to 20%, suitable only for civilian nuclear fuel), was hit.

Moreover, no existing weapon can destroy targets like Fordow or Natanz 2. Even the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), carried by B-2 Spirit bombers, can only penetrate up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete or 40 meters of rock.

In other words, the Israeli strike had virtually no strategic impact on Iran’s nuclear program. This raises a fundamental question: What was the real purpose of this operation?

Iran’s Military Response

Iran’s military is commanded by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who heads the Supreme Command Council. Half of this council was killed in the initial strike—but replacements were swiftly appointed:

  1. Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces – Abdolrahim Mousavi, former commander of the regular army.

  2. IRGC Commander – Mohammad Pakpour, brigadier general and former ground forces commander.

  3. Aerospace Forces Commander – Majid Mousavi (a.k.a. Seyed Hossein Mousavi), former deputy to the slain Hajizadeh.

  4. Khatam al-Anbiya HQ Commander – Ali Shademani, promoted from deputy.

Thus, despite the initial shock, Iran rapidly restructured its command and launched a retaliatory strike.

Hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones were fired at Israel, with significant damage reported at the Israeli General Staff building in Kiryat Malakhi. Some reports suggest Iranian missiles also struck the nuclear site in Dimona. Iran further claimed to have shot down two F-16s and one F-35, capturing a female pilot from the latter. While not all these claims are confirmed, video evidence shows dozens of Iranian projectiles bypassing Israeli air defenses.

As of now, exchanges continue, and the final scope of escalation remains unknown.

Global Reaction

Interestingly, the regional diplomatic tide may be turning. Historically, Iran has struggled with its neighbors—but now, even Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Israel’s "brutal" attack as a "clear violation of sovereignty and international norms."

Pakistan issued a similar condemnation and signaled potential military support for Iran. Turkish President Erdogan condemned Israel’s "lawlessness and reckless aggression" that threatens both regional and global security. Iraq voiced the same concerns.

The fact that Iran’s air defenses were neutralized using the same drone tactics recently used against Russia’s strategic aviation likely raised alarms in Moscow—though no official statement has yet emerged from Russia’s General Staff.

Only one major global player has offered full support for Israel: Donald Trump. However, he refrained from direct involvement. The U.S. has begun a partial withdrawal of non-essential and family personnel from the region. Prior to the strikes, Trump had advocated extending nuclear negotiations with Iran and avoiding escalation.

Conclusion

Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain largely intact. Its military command has been fully restored. International support is shifting away from Israel. And the conflict’s trajectory is uncertain.

My assessment: this could once again end in a stalemate—or it could evolve into a broader war, potentially involving nuclear powers such as Pakistan, the U.S., and regional actors.

Let’s now look at the broader global context. First stop: China and Taiwan.

The Taiwan Situation

May–June 2025: Over 330 sorties by Chinese combat and reconnaissance aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

This implies:

  1. Intensive electronic warfare simulations by the PLA, testing Taiwan’s radar and air defenses.

  2. Daily military operations violating Taiwan’s airspace midpoint.

Up to 30 Chinese naval vessels now routinely patrol near Taiwan. These include:

  • Type 052D destroyers

  • Type 054A frigates

  • Type 071 amphibious transport docks (Yuzhao-class)

  • Submarines, likely based in Hainan

Key maneuver (May 29, 2025): 15 ships crossed the median line, flanking Taiwan from the east—simulating encirclement. Aircraft carrier strike groups are regularly escorted, conducting air defense and anti-submarine drills.

This suggests:

  • China has deployed a combined naval force capable of conducting blockade, amphibious landing, and fire support.

  • Chinese forces are operating well beyond the First Island Chain, demonstrating readiness for prolonged maritime conflict.

March 2025 satellite imagery revealed three bridge barges off the Guangdong coast (near Zhanjiang), with three more under construction at Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard in Shanghai. These barges feature telescopic ramps and stabilizers, enabling them to act as floating bridges from the mainland to Taiwan’s shallow shores. Once enemy air defenses are suppressed, these will be essential for ground deployment.

In short: China is nearly ready to invade Taiwan. The Middle East conflict may conveniently divert global attention from this.

If war breaks out in Taiwan, Beijing will need a blitzkrieg. Any delay risks U.S. intervention, as well as possible involvement from Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

And Finally: Russia and Ukraine

A major escalation is brewing. In September 2025, Russia and Belarus will conduct “Zapad-2025” military drills. According to NATO sources, up to 150,000 troops will participate. This mirrors preparations for the 2022 Kyiv assault.

Expect a new push from the Kinburn Spit and Kherson toward Mykolaiv and Odesa. Russia could then reach Moldova’s border—where pro-Russian players like Sheriff and Ilan Shor’s faction are already preparing for a “Russian Spring.”

If Russia captures Kyiv and Odesa, the war in Ukraine could end by late 2025—though not without geopolitical consequences.

By Dmitrii Ershov, Political Analyst

Tags: | | | |

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.