Ukraine 2013. Retrospective. 03.05.2025

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. The next best is to disrupt his alliances. The next best is to attack his army. The worst strategy is to besiege walled cities."
*(c) Sun Tzu, The Art of War

On April 30th of this year, the United States and Ukraine signed the so-called “Resource Agreement,” and surprisingly, it was more on Ukraine’s terms. As a result of this agreement, Ukraine currently owes nothing to the U.S. However, all aid allocated by the U.S. after the agreement is now considered "investments." Essentially, Trump’s team is thus acknowledging the complete failure of peace negotiations on Ukraine and is now focused on continued financial and military support for Kyiv—but not for free. On paper, this support is framed as "investments" that Ukraine will eventually have to repay with resources, but in practice, this is nothing more than a political facade.

Let’s talk about why the situation has developed this way.

De facto, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t begin in 2022 or even in 2014, but in 2013. That’s when cells of the “Russian World” began forming across the Southeast of Ukraine, and in Syria, militant forces were being tested and trained for an eventual incursion into Ukraine. Several departments of the FSB (notably the 2nd and 5th services), the Main Directorate of the General Staff (military intelligence), and oligarch Konstantin Malofeev were behind this. It was all done under deep secrecy, and even insiders didn’t fully grasp the endgame.

Was there any resistance to this? Yes. In the media space, I was actively opposing these developments. While working in Syria, I attended meetings where topics like the creation of private military companies (PMCs) and their “trial runs” in Syria were being discussed, along with other murky objectives. The media project ANNA-News, of which I was a co-author, served as a cover for this activity. In fact, from December 2012 to April 2013, I was practically the only one maintaining ANNA-News. However, I was actively hindered from conducting any real journalistic work. That’s why I left Syria at the end of April instead of August as initially planned. I had no desire to be involved in a shady project with questionable motives.

In May 2013, I published several critical posts about the project on Lev Vershinin’s blog and uploaded Vadim Fefilov’s documentary “Territory of AK” to ANNA-News. After that, I was excluded from the project, and Malofeev’s media resources launched a smear campaign against me. Meanwhile, the Pskov regional administration—where I was supposed to take up the post of Deputy Governor for Social Affairs, based on prior agreements with Deputy Governor Maksim Zhavoronkov—took an unexpectedly hostile stance. Also, in May 2013, Vladislav Surkov, who had occasionally offered me political cover, was dismissed from the Russian government. So I had to face all of this on my own. The situation worsened further when I was involved in a serious car accident on June 4th, 2013.

After recovering somewhat, I held meetings with the FSB in June and numerous talks with the Syrian side, where I clearly laid out my position regarding ANNA-News, the creation of PMCs, and other nonsense. As an alternative, I proposed a new media project for Syria, without PMCs or any of the chaos. I also began investigating the background of Marat Musin and his circle, uncovering a number of suspicious details. That same summer, I began receiving information from Ukraine suggesting that "something was being prepared" there, including reports of militant recruitment for the “Slavic Corps.”

In fall 2013, the story of Yekaterina Ustyuzhaninova unfolded in Libya, which directly implicated Marat Musin. I visited Moscow and held important meetings, including with the Syrian side, to whom I handed over vital information—enough for them to kick ANNA-News and its associates out of Syria. Around the same time, Vladislav Surkov returned to the Presidential Administration.

Also during this time, the “Slavic Corps” was defeated in Syria, and I published the names of FSB officers involved in the recruitment of its mercenaries. Subsequently, Russian authorities began arresting both the mercenaries and the individuals involved in forming the “Slavic Corps” from “Moran Security Group.” This could have been the end of it. But…

The order to cover up the “Slavic Corps” scandal came personally from Vladimir Putin, and it was carried out through the Foreign Ministry and the SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service), not the FSB, as would have been logical. A large-scale information attack was then launched against me, using both national and regional media and the blogosphere. This campaign was orchestrated by media outlets linked to Konstantin Malofeev and Mikhail Kuznetsov (both former MDM Bank executives), and in the Pskov region, it was supported by Governor Andrey Turchak.

And this is where things get really interesting.

Under pressure from Vladimir Putin, Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign the EU Association Agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November 2013. This sparked what came to be known as the "Euromaidan." Even in late November, December, and early January 2014, dispersing the protesters in central Kyiv wouldn’t have been a problem for Yanukovych. But instead, more fuel was added to the fire. What started as a gathering of a few thousand “professional revolutionaries” eventually gained tens of thousands of supporters by February 2014. Notably, it was Vladimir Putin himself who insisted Yanukovych not use force against the protesters—an order he would later blame on the United States, claiming they had tricked him once again.

In other words, the entire Euromaidan was initially provoked by the Kremlin. And it paved the way for Petro Poroshenko to come to power—a man not so different from Yanukovych, except that Poroshenko co-founded the Party of Regions and conducted direct business with Russian GRU affiliates in Transnistria, which was not the case with Yanukovych.

After the victory of the Euromaidan, Russia immediately annexed Crimea, and Igor Girkin’s militants—most of whom had trained in Syria as part of the “Slavic Corps”—entered Southeast Ukraine. This operation was again financed by Konstantin Malofeev. Had Russia limited itself to annexing Crimea, the situation may have faded from public memory within a few years. It was Girkin’s march into Donbas that transformed a localized flashpoint into a full-scale war. I personally stated this during my State Duma primaries campaign in 2016.

So this war in Ukraine is an artificial, long-term project launched with specific objectives by powerful actors. Moreover, these actors had a backup plan: the creation of Wagner PMC, meant to forcibly change the regime in Russia itself. I had warned a decade earlier that PMCs were being created in Russia precisely for this reason—long before Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny.

As for the strategic goals behind the war in Ukraine, I see the following:

1. Total political and economic decoupling of Russia from the West and its integration into China’s sphere of influence. This goal has already been achieved. Russia is now one of Beijing’s key allies, both politically and economically—and this came about solely due to the Ukraine conflict.

2. Ukraine is being used as a military testing ground ahead of larger global conflicts. Notably, regular troops from North Korea and Chinese “volunteers” are reportedly taking part. Military equipment from these countries is also being tested on the battlefield.

3. The war in Ukraine has significantly weakened Europe economically, and to some extent even the United States. This contributes to the weakening of the Global North relative to the Global South.

The most astonishing part is that these driving forces behind the Ukraine conflict are categorically ignored by analysts in the Global North. At best, they view the conflict merely as an internal dispute between Moscow and Kyiv—and they seek to resolve it within that narrow framework. And then they’re genuinely surprised when nothing works out for them.

Dmitrii Ershov, Political Analyst

Tags: ANNA-News | Global Politics | Konstantin Malofeev | Slavic Corps | Ukraine | Viktor Yanukovych | Vladimir Putin