Total Maduro 04.01.2026

“We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”
(c) Donald Trump.

Yesterday, some very interesting events took place in Venezuela. Specifically, within a couple of hours, a Delta Force unit (The United States Army's secretive Tier One special mission unit) captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in his own bedroom, together with his wife. With an “honorary escort,” Maduro was transported to New York City, where he will now be tried by “the most humane court in the world.” I will explain the essence of what is happening a bit later. For now, let’s look at some statistics.

What Russia supplied to Venezuela:

S-300VM (Antey-2500): 9S15M2 / 9S19M2 / 9S32M + command post 9S457. Open sources indicate that Venezuela received 2 battalions.
Buk-M2E: 9S18M1-3 “Kupol,” 9S36, command post 9S510. From 9 to 12 systems according to various sources.
S-125-2M “Pechora-2M”: guidance radar of the SNR-125 family. 44 batteries.
Pantsir-S1 (delivery in 2025): 1RS1-1(E) + 1RS2. The exact number is unknown, but judging by recent videos from Caracas, there were quite a few.

Here we see a fully layered air defense system. It was the best air defense network among all Latin American countries.

Other weapons supplied:

Fighter aircraft: Su-30MK2 — 24 units.
Tanks: T-72B1V — 92 units.
IFVs: BMP-3M — 123 units.
APCs: BTR-80A — 114 units.
MLRS: BM-30 “Smerch” — 12 units.
Self-propelled artillery: 2S19 “Msta-S” — 24 units.
Helicopters: Mi-17 — 40–50 units.
Helicopters: Mi-35M — 10 units.
Helicopters: Mi-26 — 3 units.
Small arms: AK-103 — 100,000+ units.

As we can see, Caracas was armed, quite literally, “to the teeth.”

What China also supplied:

Radar systems: JY-27 — undisclosed (≈1–2 units).
Radar systems: JYL-1 — undisclosed.
UAVs: Wing Loong I — ≈8–12 units.
MLRS: SR-5 — ≈18–24 units.
Aircraft: K-8 — 18 units.
Armored vehicles: VN-4 — ≈50–100 units.
Space assets: VRSS-1 / 2 — 2 satellites.

In other words, Venezuela’s armed forces met all global standards and were the strongest in all of Latin America.

Now, a few more figures:

Venezuelan oil exports to China (2025): ~400–780 thousand barrels per day.
Venezuela’s share in China’s total oil imports: ~4% (with possible spikes up to ~7%).
China’s share in Venezuela’s oil exports: ~55%–90% (often around ~80%).
Oil reserves: ≈303 billion barrels (~17–18% of global reserves).
Current production (2025/2026): ~0.9–1.1 million bpd.
Historical peak production: ~3.45 million bpd.
Share of global production today: ~1%.

If Venezuela’s oil production is restored to ~3.45 million bpd, it would surpass Iran and take 8th place globally in oil production.

What do we have after the past 24 hours?

China has lost 4–7% of its oil supplies relative to “cheap” oil. Russia and China have also lost massive amounts of weaponry that they supplied to Venezuela — weapons that may later “surface” anywhere.

Additionally:

China’s financial inflows into Venezuela are estimated at approximately $60–70 billion (loans, often secured by oil) and $20–21 billion (direct investments). Total: ≈$80–90+ billion in overall commitments/investments by Chinese entities into the country. Importantly, part of this amount consists of loan obligations that Venezuela was supposed to repay with oil/resources, but now is unlikely to do so.
Russia’s investments in Venezuela amount to approximately $4–4.5 billion in direct investments and ~$10–17 billion including loans and financing. Total: ≈$12–20 billion (estimated, combining direct investments and credit).

All of this was effectively lost as a result of a single four-hour operation by U.S. special forces.

Unlike Syria, this hardly looks like a “backroom deal.” Rather, it resembles a complete dismantling of both the military and political systems of the country. And this time, China was hit particularly hard.

What comes next for Venezuela?

At present, the duties of Venezuela’s president are being performed by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who is politically in a “lame duck” position. It is obvious that an operation of this kind could not have been carried out by the United States without support from Venezuela’s military and security leadership. And Russia and China, as it turned out, have no real coercive leverage in the country at all. Otherwise, the local generals would have already “accidentally” shot themselves “out of shame,” and a new Hugo Chávez would be marching through the streets.

As a result, Venezuela will hold new elections. The current socialist-Bolivarian forces, to put it mildly, do not enjoy broad support among the population. Therefore, it is highly likely that the new president of Venezuela will be María Corina Machado. Was it for nothing that she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year instead of Trump? 😀 Although Trump himself currently states that he does not intend to support her.

Parliament will also be restructured, and in general the entire system of power in the country will be reshaped. Thus, from a stronghold of China and Russia, Venezuela may turn into a U.S. stronghold in the region — one that could also be used to regulate oil prices.

However, there is one caveat. Much will depend on who exactly comes to power and how. And whether they repeat the mistakes made, for example, by the corrupt regime of the utterly inert president Rafael Antonio Caldera Rodríguez, who was completely detached from the reality of what was happening in the country.

Dmitrii Ershov, political scientist

David Arius