Will China Resolve the “Taiwan Problem”? 11.11.2024

The conflict between communist China and the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan, which has been ongoing for over 70 years, is now closer than ever to a resolution. However, it is highly likely that this conflict will not be resolved peacefully. The pressing question is not if the conflict will occur, but rather when it will happen. This is the issue we will attempt to analyze now.

On January 13, 2024, elections were held in Taiwan, resulting in the election of the president, vice president, and members of the Legislative Yuan. In the presidential elections, the candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te, won with 40.5% of the votes, amounting to approximately 5.5 million votes. His main opponent was Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang party, who received around 33.5% of the votes. The Democratic Progressive Party advocates for full independence of Taiwan from mainland China, while the Kuomintang is more inclined towards dialogue between Beijing and Taipei. The victory of the DPP candidate in Taiwan's presidential elections scenario poses a significant challenge to communist China and sends a direct message that the "Hong Kong scenario" is not feasible for Taiwan in the eyes of Beijing.

Meanwhile, for the current leadership of Communist China, represented by the sole and now permanent leader Xi Jinping, the issue of reuniting mainland China with its "rebellious" province, as seen by official Beijing, in the form of Taiwan is a "historical necessity." Xi Jinping directly stated this in his previous New Year's address to the nation.

At the same time, Taiwan's President William Lai has stated that Taiwan will not yield to coercion from Beijing under any circumstances.

Thus, the possibility of a conflict between mainland China and the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan is quite high. The consequences of this conflict could be truly global. Let's analyze why this is the case.

Firstly, Taiwan is currently a leader in microelectronics production. As of 2023, Taiwan produces about 67% of the world's semiconductor output. A significant contribution to this comes from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which alone produces about 54% of all the world's chips used in various devices, from smartphones to cars.

TSMC and other Taiwanese companies, such as United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) and Vanguard International Semiconductor, play a critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan's contribution is especially significant in the production of the most advanced chips, such as 7-nanometer and 5-nanometer semiconductors, where Taiwan's share exceeds 90%.

A conflict between Beijing and Taipei would impact this market segment, negatively affecting both the U.S. and EU economies, as their capacities in this sector are still relatively weak. Their further development, which began actively only a few years ago, would take more years without Taiwan's resources.

Secondly, third countries could be drawn into this conflict. On the side of mainland China, North Korea and Russia could participate, as they are currently actively developing political and military ties. On Taiwan's side, allies such as the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines could join the conflict. If this happens, especially considering the fact that the U.S., Russia, China, and North Korea possess significant nuclear weapon potential, the conflict would have truly global and destructive consequences.

Thirdly, if Beijing manages to capture Taiwan quickly without significant consequences, it could encourage Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict in Europe, potentially involving the Baltic states, Poland, and Moldova. Threats of such actions have been voiced by official Russian propaganda representatives more than once.

Amid all this, PRC Chairman Xi Jinping makes quite contradictory statements for an external audience, in particular, claiming that the United States is trying to provoke mainland China into attacking Taiwan. Meanwhile, for the Chinese audience, Xi Jinping says the opposite, emphasizing that all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be united by a common sense of purpose and participate in the revival of the Chinese nation. He also states that China is ready to use force if necessary to achieve this goal.

The factors behind such contradictory statements from the Chinese leader are quite evident. Learning from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Xi Jinping does not want to be seen as the initiator of this conflict in the eyes of the international community, to avoid turning China into a pariah state. Therefore, he aims to portray any other side, such as the United States, as the aggressor. Meanwhile, for the domestic Chinese audience, the leader’s rhetoric remains unchanged and highly aggressive towards Taiwan.

So, when might this conflict occur? The main role here is played by geopolitical factors, primarily related to the United States. It is widely believed that the current White House Administration, led by President Joseph Biden, reacts rather weakly to threats from China. This applies not only to Taiwan.

Currently, China is the main source of precursors for producing drugs like methamphetamine and fentanyl, which Mexican cartels, including the Sinaloa Cartel and the New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), then process and distribute in the U.S. and other countries. Chinese specialists help Mexican cartels in drug production, sharing knowledge on fentanyl synthesis methods, increasing production efficiency and profitability. Chinese criminal groups are also actively involved in laundering money for Mexican cartels. They use complex schemes, including shadow banking systems and legitimate companies, to move funds between Mexico, China, and the U.S. This helps cartels hide income sources and circumvent financial laws.

At the same time, the number of Chinese migrants crossing the U.S. border through Mexico has significantly increased. In 2023, over 30,000 cases of border crossing by Chinese citizens were registered, nearly 10 times more compared to previous years. Migrants often use social media platforms like Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok) for information on routes and help in crossing the border. Chinese criminal groups (triads) help migrants organize their journeys, providing information, transportation, and other resources. For example, Chinese migrants often connect with local guides and smugglers through social media, making their journey more organized but no less dangerous.

Thus, the connections between Chinese and Mexican criminal groups encompass a wide range of illegal activities, including drug trafficking and illegal migration, posing serious challenges to international security and law enforcement.

As we have found out, triads often participate in smuggling drugs and other illegal goods, generating significant income. The main Chinese intelligence agency, the MSS, sometimes uses these criminal networks for tasks related to Hacker attacks and illegal trade, including drug and human trafficking. The MSS also uses triads for espionage operations and information gathering. These criminal groups can provide the MSS with information on the actions of dissidents abroad and other persons of interest to the Chinese government. In some cases, triads are involved in cyber-espionage and intellectual property theft, acting in the interests of the Chinese government.

Thus, the connections between Chinese triads and the MSS represent a complex and multi-layered network involving elements of smuggling, espionage, and political control. These connections allow China to effectively use criminal groups to achieve its strategic goals both domestically and abroad.

Most importantly, this activity is rapidly expanding and currently faces little resistance from U.S. authorities. On November 5, 2024, the U.S. will hold presidential elections that could dramatically change the balance of power in the White House, which Beijing is closely monitoring. The current White House administration does not significantly impede Chinese expansion. But what will happen if the administration changes? I believe that these geopolitical factors will soon influence whether Beijing will take steps to resolve the "Taiwan problem" in the near future, or if communist China will focus on further strengthening its global influence before attacking Taiwan, potentially delaying the invasion by several years.

In any case, this conflict is inevitable, and the only important question is when it will occur. There is reason to believe that this conflict will not happen before November 2024, but it could occur immediately after the U.S. elections, especially if the current White House administration changes as a result of the November elections.

What factors will indicate the imminent start of the conflict? To cross the Taiwan Strait, a distance of 81 to 112 miles, China needs a fleet. Preparing such a large number of ships will not go unnoticed. But what forces can China use for this invasion?

Analyst Tom Shugart calculated that Chinese civilian vessels could sharply increase the tonnage of military cargoes. According to experts, the use of civilian ferries reflects China's concept of military-civilian fusion, where civilian assets play a key role in ensuring national security.

Additionally, The Telegraph reports that China is preparing a fleet of ferries and civilian ships for a possible invasion of Taiwan. "Despite the lack of specialized landing ships in the People's Liberation Army of China, Beijing can use dozens of giant ferries capable of carrying hundreds of armored vehicles to fill this gap," the publication notes.

Landing troops under fire is a complex military maneuver, noted Ray Powell of Stanford University. According to him, civilian ferries are not suitable for such missions but can be used for mass troop transportation across the Taiwan Strait after the destruction of the island's coastal defenses.

Thus, in any case, before preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, the intelligence services of all interested states will be able to track anomalies associated with the movement of Chinese civilian and military vessels, as well as PLA military units. Additionally, a pretext for invasion should emerge, which will undoubtedly be top news in all global media. When these "red flags" are triggered, it will become evident that China's invasion of Taiwan is imminent. But for now, these "red flags" remain silent.

And finally, it is worth dedicating some time to describing the factors that prevent communist China from committing aggression against Taiwan.

First and foremost, the state of the armed forces is a significant consideration. Total corruption and the complete unpreparedness of the army for real war were among the main factors that led to the failure of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Xi Jinping has taken note of this and is currently conducting a massive "purge" of the command structure within the Chinese military.

In recent months, significant changes have occurred in the Chinese army, including the dismissal and resignation of high-ranking officers and defense industry leaders. This is part of the anti-corruption campaign led by President Xi Jinping.

1. Rocket Forces: In December 2023, nine high-ranking generals of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), most of whom were associated with the Rocket Forces (PLARF), were dismissed. These dismissals followed anti-corruption investigations that began with the resignation of former Rocket Forces commander Wei Fenghe in March 2023​​ (The Diplomat)​​ (USNI News)​.
2. Aerospace Sector: Feng Jiehong, chairman of China Space Sanjiang Group Corporation Limited, also resigned in February 2024. Earlier in December, three senior executives from defense enterprises related to China's aerospace and defense industry were dismissed​​ (South China Morning Post)​.

Secondly, as mentioned above, there is the threat of international isolation for China in the event of aggression against Taiwan. To address this issue, mainland China is currently pursuing an active foreign policy, developing global projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, and increasing its political, economic, and military influence worldwide, from Asia to Africa and South America.

Currently, mainland China is actively reforming its military, creating a global network of supporters, and closely monitoring the activities of its main geopolitical competitors. Thus, an attack on Taiwan is unlikely to be the ultimate goal for Beijing—it is merely a prologue to Beijing's plans for global dominance. The success of this initiative concerning Taiwan will determine the future trajectory of China's development for years to come.

Dmitrii Ershov

Tags: China | Democratic Progressive Party | Global Politics | Kuomintang party | Lai Ching-te | Taiwan | Xi Jinping