Syria Is Done 07.12.2024
"When allies turn into calculating traders, the fates of entire nations become bargaining chips."
(c) ChatGPT
The days of Bashar al-Assad's regime are numbered. It is fascinating to analyze the hidden reasons behind the rapid collapse of Ba'athist Damascus. The situation is far from simple.
In my previous commentary on the matter, I called the events a "failure." But this is, unfortunately, no mere failure. It’s much more intriguing...
It all began back in February 2020, when Erdoğan issued an ultimatum to Assad over Idlib. This culminated in the so-called Moscow Agreement on Idlib, signed on March 5, 2020, between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At that time, Bashar al-Assad was effectively presented with a fait accompli by Putin that things would be exactly as dictated. At the time, the province of Idlib remained the last major stronghold of armed opposition and radical Islamist groups such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. Assad's forces began an offensive on these militants, leading to severe clashes with Turkish forces stationed at observation posts in Idlib. Had Assad managed to bring Idlib under complete control back then, the current situation might never have occurred.
Over the next four years, with Turkey's direct support, tens of thousands of militants were trained in the Idlib province, including fighters from the former USSR. For instance, Uzbek militants are represented by groups such as Katibat al-Imam al-Bukhari and Katibat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, while the group Ajnad al-Kavkaz primarily consists of fighters from the North Caucasus. These militants have repeatedly carried out terrorist attacks in European Union countries. Incidentally, in 2016, I traveled to Lebanon specifically to start work against this contingent, which was just beginning to form its groups in the region. However, I was poisoned in an operation orchestrated against me by Russian military intelligence with assistance from the FSB.
By the fall of 2024, a fully-fledged army had been openly formed in Idlib, which is now seizing control of Syria. Starting in September 2024, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began making clear proposals to Bashar al-Assad regarding the future of Syria. These proposals were made under significant pressure from the Kremlin on Damascus. Assad refused to negotiate, and as a result, on November 27, 2024, Turkey-backed militants began their takeover of Syria, facing virtually no resistance: Russian forces simply withdrew, and the Syrian army dispersed.
Thus, it can be argued directly that the Kremlin deliberately surrendered Bashar al-Assad's regime to Turkey during some behind-the-scenes negotiations between Putin and Erdoğan.
Iran’s position is also unclear. In theory, Assad's fall could mean the loss of Tehran's influence over the entire Levant. Yet, Tehran appears to be observing the events with complete calm, while major Shiite forces have officially declined to support Damascus. This suggests that agreements with Erdoğan were reached not only in Moscow.
Meanwhile, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan currently has strained relations with both the U.S. and Israel. The U.S.'s only real allies in the Levant are the Kurds, whose de facto independence both Tehran and Ankara seek to eliminate. Israel, on the other hand, has no allies in the region at all. The Kremlin, a priori, used Bashar al-Assad as a "bargaining chip" in backdoor negotiations with Erdoğan, likely securing concessions in the South Caucasus and a pro-Kremlin stance on Ukraine in return.
Frankly, the entire situation reeks of utter filth.
Dmitrii Ershov
Tags: Bashar al-Assad | Global Politics | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Syria | Turkey | Vladimir Putin